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The Global CEO's Economic Intelligence Report
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Economic News Briefing > Q3 / 2009

  • IMF says banks well-capitalized, eyes social unrest
  • Brazil calls for IMF reforms in order to fix the global economy
  • Global IPOs surge in Q3, led by buyout deals
  • Warnings of social crisis as unemployment rises
  • China, India and Russia, eager to reduce their position in dollar-denominated securities, have expressed interest in buying IMF gold
  • Deflation is seen as a bigger problem than inflation
  • Oil price is rising due to supply constraints and speculation
  • Calls for international co-ordination of exit strategies
  • Short-term money market rates fall towards zero
  • Warnings against premature crisis exit strategies
  • The reason for the increase in leading indicators has been the rise in stock market and yield spreads.
  • Calls for financial reforms should include mechanisms for regulators to prick bubbles, direct controls of credit, and a new definition of market risk
  • Warnings about underestimating the crisis, as governments are preparing their exit strategies
  • The green shoots episode is over the policy to wait for things to improve is failing
  • Raising capital requirements for banks is not enough
  • Stocks crash, and recover
  • Forecast of more oil price hikes and the possibility of higher interest rates
  • UNCTAD report calls for new global exchange rate system, in which dollar is replaced as the main global reserve currency
  • Global macro hedge funds are betting serious money against the economic recovery
  • The VIX index for market volatility reached a new peak amid renewed concerns about the future of the financial sector
  • Media cheerleading of the current bull market is counter productive
  • Warning that Fiscal policy is rendering any monetary-only strategy ineffective
  • Pittsburgh summit will decide material changes to banking regulation, especially on capital adequacy
  • Warnings that proposed increases in capital adequacy ratio would make loans more expensive.
  • BASLE imposes new tougher capital adequacy rules on banks
  • Focus is mostly on raising bank capital. There was no deal on bonus payments.
  • Economists warn that we might get a double dip recession
  • Euro-Dollar (at $1.45) at highest levels for a year on rising risk appetite- gold at $1000 per ounce breaches through highest level for 17 months
  • G20 finance ministers meeting agrees on a minimalist list of financial reforms - rubberstamping measures that were already on government's agendas.
  • In the new world economy banks, real estate and retailing will underperform other assets
  • IMF is cautiously optimistic about global prospects.
  • OECD has a more optimistic forecast for growth in the G7
  • OECD expects recovery in 2010 everywhere but in Europe
  • G8 meeting talks about exit strategies, no concrete agreement, and differing assessments about the crisis, and future policy
  • Germany, France and UK write joint letter to set out the agenda for Pittsburgh, focusing on executive bonus payments as the most pressing issue in the world today
  • Germany criticizes excessive G20 focus on external imbalances
  • European finance ministers reached common position to restrict bankers payments ahead of the G20 summit
  • Economists face credibility challenge Have a hard time defending themselves against with criticisms of their profession
  • Insolvencies and higher unemployment would weigh on economic performance

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